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Clark Cup Finals Prediction

Head to head GP W L SOL GF GA PTS
Des Moines 4 3 1 0 16 12 6
Omaha 4 1 3 0 12 16 2

It's hard to blame USHL fans if they get a sense of deja-vu during this year's Clark Cup.

For the second consecutive year and the third time in five years, the Des Moines Buccaneers and Omaha Lancers will battle it out for the Clark Cup, emblematic of the USHL playoff championship. And to take it one step further, either the Bucs or the Lancers have won the Clark Cup in all but two years in the 1990s. The only exceptions came in 1995-96, when Green Bay won the trophy, and 1996-97, when Lincoln went home with the prize.

So it only seems appropriate that the Bucs and Lancers, the USHL's two strongest teams through the 1990s, will meet in the final Clark Cup of the decade. Including the Anderson Cup (regular season champions), the Clark Cup, and the Gold Cup (national junior A champions), the two teams have combined for 15 of the 28 trophies awarded so far this decade.

Throw in the fact that Des Moines and Omaha have one of the USHL's longest-standing rivalries, and you have the seeds planted for a great Clark Cup.

Des Moines and Omaha had very different paths through the semi-finals. The Lancers haven't played since April 6, when they finished their sweep of the Green Bay Gamblers with a 4-3 overtime win. The Lancers outscored the Gamblers 11-5 in the three game series after losing all four of their games against Green Bay during the regular season.

The Bucs were taken to the limit by the Lincoln Stars, as Des Moines defeated the Stars three games to two in the semi-finals. Three of the games were one-goal games, including two overtime games, while one other was decided by two goals, including a last-second empty net goal.

The question becomes, which path to the finals will be more effective? Last season, the Bucs played their last game before the finals on April 6, the same date that Omaha finished its semi-final series this year. Meanwhile, the Lancers played their last semi-final game on April 10, the same date the Bucs finished their series with Lincoln this year. The finals opened on April 15, the same date that the finals will start this year.

And in last year's case, the advantage seemed to belong to the team who had the shorter layoff, as the Lancers won the opener on the road by a 4-3 score, and went on to sweep the best-of-seven series. If history follows its recent course, the advantage in this series belongs to Des Moines.

For the Lancers to change the course of recent history, they will have to find a way to stop the Bucs' top line of Pete Fregoe, Noah Clarke, and Erik Jensen. After leading the USHL in scoring during the regular season, Fregoe has posted five goals and six assists through the first two rounds to lead the league in playoff scoring. Clarke and Jensen each have six points to rank among the USHL's playoff leaders.

The Bucs have had incredible offensive depth all season, and that has continued in the playoffs. Slovakian sensation Peter Sejna has picked up where he left off in the regular season, scoring a league-high six goals and adding three assists in eight playoff games. Mark Krueger has been impressive through the first two rounds, as he is tied for fifth in USHL playoff scoring with four goals and four assists. Defenseman Jim Jackson is tied for second in the league with six assists after two rounds.

Omaha has also benefited from a balanced attack while scoring 30 goals in its first six playoff games. Kevin Spiewak, who has six goals and three assists in just six games, has led the Lancers in the post-season. Joe Motzko has five goals and three assists, while Jed Ortmeyer, Scott Turner, Derek Eastman, and Paul Caponigri all have six points through the first two rounds.

Both goaltenders enter the series with impressive numbers. Matt Carney has played in all eight playoff games for Des Moines, posting a 2.77 goals against average and a 92.0 percent save percentage. On the other end of the ice, Omaha's Tony Zasowski has posted a league-best 1.49 goals against average and a league-best 93.9 percent save percentage through the first two rounds.

Keys to the series:

Des Moines

  1. Maintain the momentum of the semi-finals. As last year's Clark Cup showed, the advantage in a playoff series often belongs to the team that has had the shorter layoff. The Bucs can use that momentum to their advantage by winning at home Thursday night and then maintaining the momentum in front of an enthusiastic Saturday night crowd at the Metro Ice Sports Arena.
  2. Find a way to beat Zasowski. The Lancer goaltender posted a league-best 1.96 goals against average during the regular season, and he leads the league in goals against and save percentage in the playoffs.

Omaha

  1. Special teams. The Lancers' power play ranked first in the regular season at 24.6 percent, and they've boosted that percentage to 33.33 percent in the playoffs. However, the penalty killing has been less consistent. Although the Lancers have killed off 92.3 percent of their shorthanded situation in the first two rounds, their penalty killing ranked eighth during the regular season at a very average 80.3 percent. Against the talented Bucs power play, which ranked second during the regular season at 23.6 percent, the penalty killing will have to be strong.
  2. Get a split in Des Moines. The Lancers have played well on the road so far in the playoffs, and that will have to continue in the finals. Omaha will be the more rested team heading into the finals, but Des Moines has the momentum. If the Lancers don't take that momentum away with at least one win in the first two games, it could be a short series.

Prediction

Both teams have enough players returning from last year that the 1998 Clark Cup is still fresh in their minds. Des Moines has been billed as one of the best teams in USHL history, and a win in the Clark Cup would solidify their place in history. Add in the revenge factor and the momentum, and the Clark Cup should travel about 130 miles east on I-80. Bucs in six.

April 1999

By Trevor Grimm
Send your comments to Trevor Grimm at ushlfan@aol.com.


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