When coaches and players from eight different USHL team are quoted simultaneously as saying "We have to take it one game at a time" or "We can't win the Clark Cup in our first game," it can only mean one thing.
Yes, it's time for the USHL playoffs to begin. Six weeks of hockey that will determine the Clark Cup champion kicks off Tuesday night in Lincoln, Neb., where the fourth-place Stars host the fifth-place Sioux City Musketeers in quarterfinal action. All series in the playoffs are best-of-seven.
Heading into the post season, many USHL insiders believe the Des Moines Buccaneers are the team to beat. With eight wins in their last 10 games, a league-best 25-4-2 home record, and the league's top goaltender in terms of save percentage and goals against in Bob Revermann, all the pieces are in place for the Bucs' second title in three seasons.
It won't come easy, however. North Division champion North Iowa, which boasts the league's best defense, defending Clark Cup champion Lincoln, upstart Sioux City, and special-teams leader Omaha all have something to say about that. The same goes for Fargo, winners in seven of its last 10 games, Waterloo, and defending national champion Green Bay.
The following is a series-by-series look at the first round matchups:
#4 Lincoln vs #5 Sioux City
Season series: Lincoln won 5-1.
Regular season: Lincoln 38-17-1, 77 points. Sioux City: 32-21-3, 67 points.
Last meeting: Feb. 6 at Lincoln. Stars won 3-2 in a shootout.
The defending Clark Cup champions begin their defense of their championship with a tough test. Sioux City has posted the league's second-best record since mid-December. The Muskies started the season slow, going 4-8 in their first 12 games. Since then, however, Sioux City has been the league's comeback story of the year, as wins, fan interest and attendance have all skyrocketed.
The key for the Muskies will be the play of goaltender Jeff Sanger (2.54 goals against, 91.9 save percentage). For most of February, Sanger was unbeatable, posting three shutouts in a four-game span. Although he has not been as dominant in recent weeks, Sanger is still capable of leading a team to the Clark Cup single-handedly.
Up front, sniper Mike Scott, who scored 33 goals and added 19 assists for 52 points will be Lincoln goaltender Josh Blackburn's biggest concern. Jeff Carlson (23-26-49) and Morgan Roach (22-26-48) add offensive punch to a team that has been able to buy goals by the dozen on some nights, while they have struggled to find the net on others.
Lincoln enters the playoffs in a similar situation to last season. Once again, the Stars have a hot goaltender with no playoff experience. Last year it was Jason Braun, this time around, it is Blackburn. Since joining the Stars in January after playing for last-place Dubuque the past two and a half years, Blackburn has posted a goals against average of 2.45 and a save percentage of 92.3. The Stars acquired the veteran goaltender in hopes of making a run at the Clark Cup, and time will tell if the deal paid off.
Lincoln's balanced attack is led by forwards Bryan Lundbohm (26-38-64) and Marc Suderman. (23-33-56). Chris Fournier, the USHL's only 15-year-old, scored 11 goals and added 29 assists in 52 games this season. The Stars had the league's best offense during the regular season, scoring a league-high 229 goals.
Special teams will be key in this series. Lincoln's power play (20.53 percent, third in USHL and penalty killing (85.09 percent, fifth in the USHL) have both improved over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Sioux City's penalty killing, first or second in the league for much of the season, has slid to fourth (85.81 percent). One thing is certain: the Muskies have had a lot of practice killing penalties. Sioux City led the league with 1905 penalty minutes this season.
Although Lincoln won 5 of 6 games from Sioux City in the regular season, three were by one goal, including a shootout win and an overtime win. A fourth was by two goals, one of which was an empty net goal.
An interesting aspect to watch will be the condition of the ice in the Sioux City Auditorium, especially if the weather turns warm. The Auditorium is known for many things, but good ice is not one of them. Lincoln is familiar with this, as ice conditions in Sioux City's 3-1 home ice win against the Stars on Dec. 31 resembled slushy spring roads. And with a NAIA basketball tournament in the Auditorium the past week, ice conditions could play a factor. Added to the small ice size (179 feet by 80 feet instead of the standard 200 feet by 85 feet), and the Auditorium becomes a difficult place to play for visitors.
Although Lincoln won 5 of 6 games from Sioux City in the regular season, three were by one goal, including a shootout win and an overtime win. A fourth was by two goals, one of which was an empty net goal.
With the possible exception of Des Moines, no team has a stronger home-ice advantage than these two teams. The Muskies' advantage is because of the small ice, the Stars' is because of the noisy atmosphere. There's no reason to believe that home teams won't win at least five games in a seven-game series.
PREDICTION: Lincoln in 7
#3 Omaha vs #7 Fargo
Season series: 3-1 Omaha.
Regular season: Omaha 39-15-2, 78 points. Fargo 26-23-7, 59 points.
Last meeting: Feb. 27 at Omaha. Fargo won 4-2.
Don't let the stats fool you. Fargo is not a 26-23-7 team. This has really been the tale of two seasons for the Ice Sharks.
The first season came roughly during a December to February stretch when Mark Cullen was injured. Cullen posted 17 goals and 54 points in just 30 games this year for Fargo. The second season came when Cullen was in the lineup. Combined with USHL leading scorer Tyler Arnason (37-45-82), the duo gives the Sharks the best one-two punch in the league.
Don't expect to see the two of them on the ice at the same time, however, unless the Sharks are on the power play. And speaking of power plays, this series will match the league's two best power plays. Omaha leads the USHL with a 27.79 percent power play, while Fargo is second at 25.28 percent. Once again, the numbers lie. With Cullen and Arnason both in the lineup, Fargo's powerplay is better than 30 percent.
Just how much does Cullen mean to this team? When Cullen was out of the lineup, Fargo fell from fifth place overall to a fight for the final playoff spot. Since Cullen has returned, however, the Ice Sharks have turned their season around, going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. Included in that stretch was a 4-2 win at Aksarben on Feb. 27.
On the other hand, Omaha is a team that has struggled the last half of the season. At Christmas, it looked as if the Lancers had wrapped up first overall. A skid through January and February sent Omaha tumbling in the standings, however, and the Lancers' season came down to a showdown on March 7 in Des Moines. The Bucs prevailed, and the Lancers ended up finishing with 80 points, two behind Des Moines.
Omaha lacks the firepower of last year's squad, but that doesn't mean they are without offensive weapons. Chad Theuer was third in league scoring with 70 points, while fighter-turned-team captain Neil Breen was fifth with 65 points.
Dennis Bassett (2.56 goals against, 89.8 save percentage) will likely guard the nets for the Lancers, while former Lancer Kevin O'Malley (2,72 goals against, 92.4 save percentage) will be between the pipes for Fargo.
PREDICTION: Omaha in 7.
#2 North Iowa vs #7 Waterloo
Season series: 2-2
Regular season: North Iowa 36-14-5, 78 points. Waterloo 25-29-2, 52 points.
Last meeting: Jan. 21 at Mason City. North Iowa won 5-2
On paper, this looks like a mismatch. The Huskies had the league's best defense during the regular season, allowing 136 goals, while the Blackhawks were one of only two playoff teams to give up 200 goals. North Iowa has the league's second-leading scorer in Nate DiCasmirro (29-45-74), Waterloo has nobody among the league leaders.
If the game was played on paper, the Huskies would win. The game is played on ice, however. And on the ice, this series won't be as easy as it looks.
First of all, the Hawks are 2-1 against North Iowa this year. Waterloo won both of their home games against the Huskies, who posted the league's best road record at 18-8-4. And with the schedule for this series, that could be a big advantage for the Hawks. Games one and two are in Waterloo on Friday and Saturday, even though North Iowa has home ice advantage. After the series shifts to Mason City for three games, game six would be played in Waterloo before game seven would be held in Mason City.
The key for this series is for Waterloo to be patient against the Huskies' strong defense. All-star goaltender Phil Osaer will need to stand on his head against North Iowa's potent forwards as well for the Hawks to have a chance.
If Waterloo sweeps the first two games at home and steals one in Mason City, they could very easily win this series in six games. Don't count on it, however. North Iowa is a strong enough road team to win at least one of the first two games, and expect them to hold serve in their own building.
PREDICTION: North Iowa in 5.
#1 Des Moines vs #8 Green Bay
Season series: 2-2.
Regular season: Des Moines 40-14-2, 82 points. Green Bay 23-28-5, 51 points.
Last meeting: Feb. 22 at Green Bay. Green Bay won 4-2.
The Gamblers managed a split in the regular season series with the Bucs. Green Bay is the defending national champions. Last year's playoff MVP, Jason Braun, will be in goal for the Gamblers.
From reading the above paragraph, it would appear that the Gamblers are primed to pull off an upset of the USHL's top regular-season team. Don't believe it. It's not the case.
Des Moines has played their best hockey the past couple of months. The Bucs seem to be set on getting revenge for last year's late-season collapse which dropped them from first place to fourth place before losing to North Iowa in the first round of the playoffs. Not only has Des Moines posted an 8-2-0 record in their last ten games, they haven't had an easy schedule. The Bucs' current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of Omaha, Sioux City and Lincoln.
While Des Moines had the second-best offense in the league during the regular season (226 goals), they also had the league's top goaltender in Revermann. The Lancers dealt Revermann to the Bucs in mid-season, and they have been sorry ever since. The outstanding play of Revermann is the main reason Des Moines passed Omaha for the Anderson Cup.
Green Bay counters with Braun, who backstopped the Stars to the Clark Cup last year. Braun posted a 2.97 goals against and a 89.6 save percentage during the regular season.
The Bucs' offense is led by Pete Fregoe (31-32-63), Eric Maksimenko (27-23-50) and Noah Clarke (19-30-49). Des Moines also lead the league with 186 even-strength goals, important in the playoffs when the refs tend to call the games a bit looser.
Green Bay, on the other hand, had the worst offensive output of any playoff team with just 157 goals. The Gamblers' power play was a dismal 14.46 percent, better than only Rochester.
If Des Moines keeps up their current pace, they will have no trouble with the Gamblers. In fact, the Bucs might even get a few extra days to prepare for their second round opponent.
PREDICTION: Des Moines in 4.
