First Round Predictions

Prior to the 1998-99 USHL season, the Des Moines Buccaneers were overwhelming favorites to capture the Anderson Cup, the award given to the league's regular season champions.

The Bucs accomplished this task with little difficulty, finishing 11 points ahead of any other USHL team to capture their second consecutive Anderson Cup and their fourth in six years. However, while the Anderson Cup has become somewhat of a regular fixture in the Metro Ice Sports Arena, the Clark Cup has been more elusive. The Bucs have captured the Clark Cup in just one of those previous Anderson Cup seasons, that being 1994-95 season.

As a result, nobody is talking about whether or not the Bucs will be motivated in the playoffs, despite already clinching a berth in the national tournament, to be held in Lincoln April 30-May 5. Throughout the season, this year's team has proven itself to be able to stay focused, even as the Anderson Cup seemed to be well in hand with a month left in the season.

On the other bench, the Twin Cities Vulcans captured the final playoff spot with an impressive 3-1 win against Lincoln on the final day of the regular season. Although the Stars rested many of the their top players, since the game was essentially meaningless to Lincoln, the Vulcans came up with a strong effort when they needed it most.

Twin Cities goaltender Pete Samargia made some outstanding saves against the Stars, and he'll have to be equal to the task against the Bucs. The Bucs are led offensively by three of the top five scorers in the USHL. Pete Fregoe became the first USHL player to reach the century mark since Waterloo's Jason Blake tallied 100 points in 1993-94. Fregoe scored 46 goals and added 57 assists for 103 points. Linemate Noah Clarke finished fifth in league scoring with 63 points.

Peter Sejna, who finished fourth in league scoring with 63 points, forms half of the Slovakian duo for the Bucs. Des Moines' other Slovakian, highly touted defenseman Peter Smrek, is expected to be a mid-round pick in this summer's NHL draft and anchors a strong defensive corps.

In order to upset the Bucs, the Vulcans will need to find a way to stop Des Moines' offense. The Bucs scored 304 goals this year, 71 more than any other USHL team. On the other hand, the Vulcans allowed 246 goals, the third-highest total in the league.

Keys to the series:

Des Moines:

1. Keep up the level of play they've been at all season. The Bucs never spent a day out of first place in the regular season, and they enter the playoffs as favorites to capture the Clark Cup.
2. Don't take the Vulcans too lightly. The biggest fear for the Bucs could be overconfidence. However, co-captain Pete Fregoe played on the 1996-97 team that was upset in the first round by North Iowa, and you can be sure he'll remind his teammates of that season.

Twin Cities:

1. Great goaltending is a must. The Vulcans did manage one regular season win against the Bucs, a 4-1 home ice win, thanks in large part to the strong goaltending of Samargia. A hot goaltender can take a team a long ways in the playoffs, and it's a must for the Vulcans to get to the second round.
2. Win the first game. Although the Bucs have home ice advantage, game one is at Columbia Arena in Fridley. With three of the next four games in Des Moines, where the Bucs posted a league best 29-2 home record, the Vulcans have to win the opener to have a chance.

Prediction

The Bucs have too much offense to fall prey to a first-round upset. Bucs in three.

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While playoff battles involving the Thunder Bay Flyers were legendary in the 1980s and the early 1990s, the last few years have been tougher for the Flyers.

As the quality of play in the United States has increased, the Flyers have been hurt by the USHL rule allowing them just two players from outside of the Thunder Bay area. With the reduced recruiting base, the Flyers have missed the playoffs the past three season.

This year's Flyers team is a bit different from the past three, however. Not only are the new road jerseys likely the best road jerseys in the USHL, the things have gone better on the ice for the Flyers.

Thunder Bay needed a home-ice split with Omaha on the final weekend of the regular season to make the playoffs, and that's exactly what happened. As a result, Thunder Bay goes to the playoffs as the seventh seed, finishing one point ahead of Twin Cities and Rochester.

The Flyers don't have an easy task in front of them, however. The Gamblers posted a 41-14-4 regular season record en route to a second place finish. With a large number of players returning from last year's playoff squad, the Gamblers have the talent and experience to challenge Des Moines for the Clark Cup.

Green Bay is led offensively by a trio of players. Mike Perpich and Tom Preissing finished tied for tenth in league scoring with 55 points, while Jason Notermann notched 51 points. The balanced Gambler attack finished third in the USHL with 213 goals.

Green Bay's offense could cause some headaches for the Flyer defense, which gave up 247 goals, second only to Fargo-Moorhead. However, the Flyers' schedule often worked against them, as their road trips generally consisted of three games in three nights because of Thunder Bay's location, which is about six hours from it's closest USHL rival. Despite that fact, the Flyers posted a respectable 7-18-4 road record during the regular season.

Keys to the series:

Green Bay:

1. Don't overlook the Flyers. Thunder Bay has played well against the league's top teams this year, posting a 1-1-2 record against Omaha and taking the Bucs to a shootout in Des Moines. If Green Bay overlooks the Flyers, they could be in for a long series.
2. Goaltending. The Gamblers have received stellar goaltending from Rob Anderson (2.30 goals against, third in USHL) all season. There's no reason to believe the playoffs will be any different.

Thunder Bay:

1. Play with plenty of emotion. The Flyers have been most successful when they've played hard-hitting, emotional hockey. Physical play can become more important in the playoffs, and the Flyers are strong in this department.
2. Stay out of the penalty box. The Flyers need to play physical in order to upset the Gamblers, but with a penalty killing percentage of 79.79, good for ninth in the league, the Flyers can't afford to spend too much time shorthanded.

Prediction

The Flyers have played well against some of the league's top teams, and they have the potential to make this series interesting. The Gamblers, however, are too talented and too experienced not to make it out of the first round. Gamblers in four.

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The Omaha Lancers have home ice advantage in their first round series against the Dubuque Fighting Saints, but when you first glance at the schedule, it isn't obvious.

Despite having three of the potential five games in the series at home, the Lancers will play the first game and the decisive fifth game, if the series was to go that far, on the road.

In order to take advantage of the scheduling, the Saints will have to win the first game on home ice, or else they will be faced with the unenviable task of winning two out of three games at Aksarben, where the Lancers were 25-5-0 this season.

To advance to the second round, Dubuque will have to find a way to stop the potent Omaha offense. The Lancers were second in the USHL in goals scored during the regular season with 234.

Captain Jed Ortmeyer, who posted 59 points in 52 games, leads Omaha's offense. The Omaha native is the first Nebraska-born player to receive a full scholarship at a NCAA division I school. Ortmeyer will play for defending national champion Michigan in the 1999-2000 season.

Omaha's power play ranked first in the USHL with a 24.58 percent effectiveness, as the Lancers scored 74 power play goals on 301 opportunities. Dubuque's penalty killing was twelfth in the USHL at 74.22 percent, which could be a problem against the potent Lancer power play.

Tony Zasowski, who led the league with a 1.96 goals against average, will get the nod between the pipes for the Lancers. Ron Wiitanen, who saw action in all but five of the Saints' regular season games, will start for the Saints.

The Lancers controlled the season series against the Saints, winning all four games. Dubuque's only point in the series came in a home-ice 5-4 shootout loss.

Keys to the series:

Omaha:

1. Continue the success on the power play. The Lancers power play has been potent the last part of the regular season. Omaha used a successful power play to lead them to a Clark Cup championship last season, and there's no reason to believe they won't try to do the same this year.
2. Get an early lead. With Zasowski in goal, it's tough to come from behind against the Lancers. Omaha plays well when taking an early lead.

Dubuque:

1. Win the first game. With games two, three, and four at Aksarben, the Saints need to win the opener on home ice. Winning two of the next three games in Aksarben would be too much to ask.
2. Special teams. The power play needs to take advantage of the average Lancer penalty killing, while the Saints' penalty killing has to find a way to stop the Omaha power play.

Prediction:

Omaha's power play is too much for the Saints to handle, and with Zasowski in net, the Lancers are a tough team to come from behind and beat. Lancers in three.

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The seeds for a great series were planted last spring, when the Stars eliminated the Musketeers four games to one in an intense first round matchup.

Those seeds were cultivated a bit more on March 3, when Lincoln went into Sioux City and posted an exciting 6-5 shootout victory in a game that featured everything - fights, plenty of goals, a shootout, and the ejection of Sioux City coach Dave Hakstol.

For Lincoln, it might have been the biggest win of the season. Not only was it part of the Stars' eight-game winning streak that was eventually snapped on the final day of the regular season, but the win mirrored a similar momentum-building shootout victory against the Muskies near the end of last season.

Lincoln hopes this year's late-season win leads to the same playoff result. The Stars have had more trouble with the Muskies this year than they did last year, as Sioux City won four of the six games between the two teams. However, the Stars have been one of the league's hottest teams down the stretch, winning 12 of their last 14 games.

While Lincoln struggled to find the back of the net for the first half of the season, the Stars ended up fifth in the league in goals scored with 198. Leading the way offensively is 16-year-old Chris Fournier, who finished eighth in league scoring with 58 points. Fournier has spent much of the year on the same line as Brendon Hodge, who was second in team scoring with 53 points.

Lincoln has a balanced offensive attack, which includes Eric Maksimenko, Drew Otten, Jake Wiegand, and Andy Lundbohm. Defenseman Ed Cassin was among the league's top scoring blueliners, posting 40 points in 45 games.

Sioux City, on the other hand, has looked toward one very powerful line for much of their offense. The line of Ruslan Fedotenko, Tyler Palmiscno, and Tim Skarperud has accounted for a large part of the Muskies' goal scoring. Fedotenko finished second in the league in goals and points, with 43 goals and 77 points, while Palmiscno posted 70 points, good for third in the league.

Both teams have platooned goaltenders most of the season. The Stars will start either Wayne Russell or Darren Gastrock in game one. Neither goaltender has received significantly more ice time than the other since Christmas, and either is capable of the task at hand. The Muskies will likely counter with veteran Jake Moreland, although newcomer Michael Betz has been equally impressive throughout the season.

Sioux City has home ice advantage, but that doesn't seem to mean much with these two teams. The Stars are 5-3 in their last eight games at the Sioux City Auditorium, while the Muskies are 3-2 in their last five games at Lincoln's Ice Box.

Keys to the series:

Sioux City:

1. The power play has to be effective. The Muskies' power play was third in the league at 22.22 percent in the regular season, and many of Fedotenko's goals came as the point man on the power play.
2. Production from the second and third lines. The Fedotenko-Palmiscno-Skarperud line is as effective as any in the league, but the second and third lines must have a good series to counteract the Stars' balanced attack.

Lincoln:

1. Forechecking. The Stars are at their best when their forecheck creates scoring chances. On the small ice surface in Sioux City, the Stars' forecheck becomes more dangerous, as scoring chances can be created very quickly.
2. Special teams. Lincoln's penalty killing was third in the league at 84.24 percent, and while the power play ranked 12th at 17.56 percent, the Stars power play has been very effective the last month of the regular season.

Prediction

Home ice doesn't mean much between these two teams. Lincoln's style has always been very successful at the Auditorium, and to win this series, the trend will have to continue. Stars in five.

March 1999

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