USHL 2001 Clark Cup First Round Predictions
As the first round of the 2001 Clark Cup playoffs gets underway, USHL fans might experience a sense of deja vu when they take a look at the matchups.
Forgive fans in Des Moines, Omaha, Lincoln, and Sioux City if they feel a sense of deja vu. For the second consecutive year, Des Moines and Omaha will square off in the first round, but this actually marks the fourth straight season the two teams will see each other in the playoffs, as the Buccaneers and Lancers battled for the Clark Cup in 1998 and 1999.
Lincoln and Sioux City can top that, however. For the fourth consecutive season, the two teams will square off in the opening round, with the Stars winning the first three battles. It has not been an easy road in the past, however, as the Stars trailed in the third period of the fifth and deciding game in 1999 and 2000 before coming back to win the game and the series on both occasions.
The other two first round tilts vary from last season, but even there, there are similarities. Once again, the Green Bay Gamblers are the second seed by virtue of their East Division championship, but this time, they will face the Tri-City Storm in a rematch of last year's Clark Cup finals. Last April, the Gamblers defeated the then-Twin Cities Vulcans in the Clark Cup, only to watch the Vulcans gain revenge at the national tournament, defeating the Gamblers in Green Bay in the championship game.
In the fourth series, the Sioux Falls Stampede will again go to the playoffs as the third seed, despite having a better record than the second-seeded Gamblers. The Stampede will face the Cedar Rapids Roughriders, who are making their first post-season appearance since moving from Mason City, Iowa, in the fall of 1999.
#4 OMAHA LANCERS (35-15-6, 76 PTS.) VS. #5 DES MOINES BUCCANEERS (32-21-1, 67 PTS.)
Throughout much of the USHL's recent history, it seems that either the Buccaneers or the Lancers see their Clark Cup playoff drive end at the hands of the other team.
In 1996, the underdog Bucs upset the heavily favored Lancers in a first round matchup. In 1998, it was Omaha's turn to pull off the upset, sweeping the regular season champion Bucs in the Clark Cup. The following year, Des Moines turned the tables, sweeping the Lancers to capture the Clark Cup. Last season, the Bucs sent the Lancers to the golf course early, knocking Omaha out in a four-game first round series.
For the second consecutive year, the Interstate 80 rivalry takes center stage in the first round of the playoffs. However, more than a few things are different this time around. Twelve months ago, it seemed both the Lancers and Bucs were limping into the playoffs, struggling through the final two months of the season. This time, both teams had a stronger stretch drive, with Omaha making a run at the third seed before two losses to Lincoln on the season's final weekend ended any hopes of moving up in the standings.
On the other hand, Des Moines posted an average 4-5-1 record in the last ten games, but the Bucs have been playing better hockey in February and March than they did a year ago. Des Moines appears more focused and more suited to the physical playoff style than last year, when the Bucs came one game away from the Clark Cup.
To beat Omaha, the Bucs will have to figure out a way to put the puck in the net, something few opponents have done against the Lancers this season. Omaha ranked second in goals against with 145, two more than the league-leading Lincoln Stars. The Lancers feature the goaltending duo of Marty Magers (2.32 goals against, 91.0% save percentage) and Ray Fraser (2.42, 90.9%), both of whom ranked among the top four USHL goalies in goals against average.
At the other end of the ice, speedy Riley Riddell (30 goals -34 assists-64 points) has paced the Lancer attack, as Riddell finished sixth in league scoring. As a team, the Lancers scored 215 goals, third behind Sioux Falls and Lincoln.
Des Moines is led offensively by the trio of Doug Meyer (29-27-56), David Klema (13-40-53), and Ryan Bennett (28-24-52). All three were among the league's top 20 scorers, and they will need to continue their performance for the Bucs to make it to the second round.
In order to beat the Lancers, the Bucs would be well advised to avoid the penalty box. Des Moines' penalty killing ranked next to last in the USHL at 76.51 percent, while Omaha's power play ranked fifth at 19.34 percent. Scoring power play goals will not be easy for Des Moines either, as the Lancers had the league's best penalty-killing at 85.56 percent, while the Bucs' power play was seventh at a very average 18.51 percent.
What Omaha must do to win:
-- Continue to play solid defense. The Lancers' defense has been as solid as any in the league, and as the adage goes, defense wins championships.
-- Build on late-season momentum. Over the last half of the season, the Lancers have been able to compete with any team in the league, and they might be peaking at the right time.
What Des Moines must do to win:
-- Stay out of the penalty box. The Bucs' penalty killing has been a weak spot, and the Lancers feature a potent power play. The more penalties this series features, the more it will favor Omaha.
-- Get solid goaltending from Mike Mantua. Mantua (3.46, 89.6%) has been very average at times this season, and he has a tendency to get rattled if things start going wrong. On the other hand, if he has a solid opening game, his confidence could build and the Bucs could have a good chance to advance.
PREDICTION: Right now, Omaha might be the second-hottest team in the league after Lincoln. The Lancers have a decided edge on special teams and goaltending, and they are peaking at the right time. The Bucs have been up and down through the season, although the end of the season has provided more ups than downs. Still, look for the Lancers to win the series and make a serious bid for the Clark Cup. Lancers in five.
#3 SIOUX FALLS STAMPEDE (40-14-2, 82 PTS.) VS. #6 CEDAR RAPIDS ROUGHRIDERS (30-21-5, 65 PTS.)
Through their first two seasons in the USHL, the Sioux Falls Stampede have never finished lower than second in the tough West Division, staying in the Anderson Cup race well into March on both occasions.
That's the good news. The bad news? Despite their regular season success, Sioux Falls has never won a post-season game. As the third seed last season, the Stampede were swept in the first round by eventual national champion Twin Cities.
Now for the worst news. Despite a 40-14-2 regular season that saw the Stampede lead the league with 267 goals, they might be primed for the same thing again. This time, Sioux Falls faces Cedar Rapids, which comes into the playoffs as one of the league's hottest teams, just as Twin Cities did one year ago.
Cedar Rapids finished the season with a 6-2-2 record in their last ten games to move into the sixth spot, a position that looked unlikely at Christmas, when the Roughriders appeared to be a playoff long shot.
On the other hand, Sioux Falls finished the season 6-4-0 in their final ten games and went from fighting Lincoln for the Anderson Cup to holding off Omaha for the third playoff seed. Still, the Stampede's potent offense should, at worst, ensure the Stampede will get their first playoff victory.
Sioux Falls' attack is led by forwards Mike Doyle (32-46-78), James Massen (36-39-75), and Dave Iannazzo (24-37-61), as well as the league's top scoring defenseman, Jamie Mattie (12-53-65). The Stampede are not a four-man show on offense by any means, however, as they led the league with 267 goals.
In order to advance to the second round, the Stampede will have to get by Cedar Rapids goaltender Bobby Goepfert (2.92, 91.6%). While Goepfert's goals against ranked just ninth in the league, his save percentage ranked second behind Tri-City's Bernd Bruckler.
Cedar Rapids' balanced attack is led by Darren Partch (23-22-45), Chase Watson (12-20-32), Dave Moss (20-18-38), and Danny O'Brien (14-24-38). While no Roughrider can claim numbers in the Doyle-esque range, the Roughriders' balanced attack could wear down the Sioux Falls defensive corps as the series goes on.
What Sioux Falls must do to win:
-- Keep the series high-offense and high-tempo. If the series becomes a high-scoring affair, Sioux Falls is in good shape. Even then, however, there is some risk involved, as Cedar Rapids led the East Division with 192 goals.
-- Convert on the power play. The Stampede feature the league's best power play at 26.26 percent, but in the playoffs, most referees let more go, meaning five-on-five play becomes more critical. Sioux Falls is just +39 when playing five-on-five, compared to +85 overall.
What Cedar Rapids must do to win:
-- Get strong goaltending from Goepfert. The Roughriders can give up a lot of shots on occasion, and that fact, combined with Sioux Falls' high-flying offense, means Goepfert will face a lot of pucks in this series. Solid goaltending could frustrate the Stampede, much as Twin Cities' Adam Berkhoel did in the first round last season.
-- Avoid getting into a shootout. Cedar Rapids has a balanced offense and has put up some impressive numbers, but nobody in the league is able to outscore Sioux Falls if the game becomes purely offense.
PREDICTION: Despite their regular season record, the Stampede have failed to convince some observers they are a championship contender. Sioux Falls relies heavily on offense, and that can be shut down by a hot goaltender in the playoffs. Still, the Stampede should have enough horsepower to shut down the Roughriders, but it will be closer than many people think. Stampede in five.
#2 GREEN BAY GAMBLERS (32-13-11, 75 PTS.) VS. #7 TRI-CITY STORM (27-21-8, 62 PTS.)
Playing in the league's northernmost location, the Green Bay Gamblers tend to toil in relative anonymity. After all, this is a team that routinely captures the East Division title, and they are the defending Clark Cup champions.
Yet when the talk turns to title contenders, the Gamblers are rarely mentioned.
As they tend to prove each year in the playoffs, that is a mistake. The Gamblers' 13 regular season losses were the second-fewest in the league behind Lincoln, and goaltender Jure Penko (2.42, 90.9%) is as good as any in the league.
And while the offense posted just 177 goals, well behind the league leaders, Green Bay's 153 goals against was third best in the USHL and just eight more than league-leading Lincoln.
As a result, it is time to give the Gamblers their proper respect as Clark Cup contenders. If you do not believe the numbers, perhaps the trophy in the lobby of the Brown County Arena will make you a believer.
In order to defend their title, the Gamblers face a familiar foe in the Tri-City Storm. The Storm is the team formerly known as the Twin Cities Vulcans, Green Bay's opponent in the Clark Cup and the Gold Cup championship game last season. While the Gamblers had little trouble with the Vulcans in the Clark Cup, Twin Cities stole the Gold Cup on Green Bay's home ice, setting the stage for an exciting first round series this year.
The Storm are led by forwards Konrad Reeder (34-24-58) and Brad Thompson (19-28-47). The last line of defense is solid with surprising goaltender Bernd Bruckler (2.48, 91.8%), who led the league in save percentage during the regular season.
Green Bay's balanced attack is led by Luke Staffacher (13-33-46) and Andy Contois (18-24-42). As an average offensive team, the Gamblers will rely heavily on the play of Penko, who backstopped Green Bay to the Clark Cup in 2000.
What Green Bay must do to win:
-- Get solid goaltending from Penko. Penko was a key in the Gamblers' championship season in 2000, and he is as solid as any goaltender in the league.
-- Figure out a way to beat Bruckler. Bruckler has been solid for the Storm this season, and the Gamblers' offense is only average in the best of times. A strong series by Bruckler could make it tough for the Gamblers.
What Tri-City must do to win:
-- Play with the same passion and intensity as last season. During their last year in Minnesota, the Vulcans gave 110% every night in the post-season. If coach Jim Hillman can get the same effort this season, the Storm could stay alive until the second round.
-- Get solid goaltending. With Penko in net, there's little question this will be a strength for Green Bay. If the Storm are to compete, they must get the same effort between the pipes.
PREDICTION: The Gamblers are a team most West Division fans hear little about during the regular season, but they are always there at the end. Tri-City has a national title to defend, and Hillman has proven he is one of the league's best motivators. Still, look for Green Bay to pull out a win in a tough series. Gamblers in five.
#1 LINCOLN STARS (43-7-6) VS. #8 SIOUX CITY MUSKETEERS (27-22-7, 61 PTS.)
In the process of amassing a 43-7-6 record, the Lincoln Stars not only won the Anderson Cup, but also led the league in team defense, finished second in goals scored, and featured the league's two leading point getters and the league's leading goal scorer.
All in all, not a bad season in Nebraska's capital city.
So, for all their accomplishments, what do the Stars get as a reward? For the fourth consecutive year, the answer is, the archrival Sioux City Musketeers.
Yes, for the fourth consecutive season, and the fourth time in Lincoln's five-year history, the Stars will face the Muskies in the opening round. Considering the Stars have won all three previous meetings, the matchup might seem very appealing to Lincoln.
A closer look reveals otherwise, however. While the Stars have sent Sioux City packing the past three seasons, the Stars trailed in the third period of the fifth and deciding game the last two years. In addition, the Stars were eliminated in the second round each season after a tough first round series against Sioux City.
Regardless, fate has apparently brought the two rivals together again in the opening round, even if neither team has reason to be overjoyed. On paper, this should be Lincoln's fourth consecutive win against the Muskies, but the series will not likely be a cakewalk.
One of the most interesting storylines, as well as the possible x-factor, is Sioux City goaltender Jake Brandt. Brandt (2.79, 90.3%) entered the season as the likely starter in goal for Lincoln, but a logjam at that position forced a mid-season trade to the Muskies. Since joining Sioux City, Brandt has split time with Brian Panik (3.12, 89.6%), but Brandt's better numbers and knowledge of the Stars' shooters should give him the starting nod in the opening round.
Then again, when you're facing players such as Brandon Bochenski (47-33-80) and Chris Fournier (26-57-83), even the goaltending knowledge of Ken Dryden might not be enough to make a difference. Fournier, in his fourth USHL season, became the first Star to lead the league in scoring, while Bochenski's 47 goals were not only a league high, but placed him 11 goals ahead of any other USHL player.
Even if you can shut down Bochenski and Fournier, the Stars can still light the lamp. Marco Peluso (25-26-51), Preston Callander (24-26-50), and John Snowden (23-26-49) are all formidable offensive threats, as is late season addition Keith Dore, who posted 20 points (7-13-20) in 14 games after missing most of the season with injuries.
As strong as the Stars' offense is, their real strength is defense. With veterans Andy Schneider, Nick Fouts, Ken Scuderi, Nick Fuher, Anthony D'Arpino, Tom Watkins, and Lee Marvin on the blueline, the defensive corps makes the job easier for the goaltenders. Not that the goaltenders need any help either, as Justin Johnson (2.35, 91.2%) and Beau Fritz (2.44, 91.5%) both rank among the league's top five in terms of goals against average.
There is no question the Muskies will have their work cut out for them this time. Sioux City's top scorer, Scott Polaski (18-26-44) is the only Musketeer to post more than 40 points this season. The Muskies scored just 174 goals, last in the West Division and tenth in the USHL, ahead of only Dubuque and Rochester.
What Lincoln must do to win:
-- Continue their regular season domination. The Stars posted the best regular season in franchise history, as well as one of the best in USHL history. They are solid up front, on the blueline, and in goal. If they play their game, it will be tough for anyone to beat Lincoln.
-- Keep from getting overconfident. The regular season was perhaps too easy at times, as the Stars were routinely far enough ahead by mid-game to be able to cruise the rest of the night. Still, the team kept their focus after clinching the Anderson Cup, and after last year's semi-final upset loss to Twin Cities, there is no question Lincoln will be focused.
What Sioux City must do to win:
-- Play physical. The Muskies led the league with 1657 penalty minutes, and 6'7" defenseman Art Femenella (2 points, 252 penalty minutes) may not be an offensive force, but he can be a solid physical presence.
-- Play tight-checking hockey. The more wide open the series gets, the more it favors the more talented, quicker Stars.
PREDICTION: When these two teams meet, past records tend to mean little. As usual, Sioux City is peaking late in the season, posting a league-best 8-1-1 record in their last ten games, including their only win this season against the Stars. Had the Muskies drawn Green Bay or Sioux Falls in the first round, they would have likely pulled out the upset. But against Lincoln, it's going to be tough. Stars in four.
By Trevor Grimm
Published 3-28-2001